As I get questions from readers from my Ask The Chief Dragon Slayer Campaign, I will take some of the questions that I think might have a broad audience and post them here on the blog.
This one is filed under “Dragons – Sales: How Do You Forecast Revenues For A Start Up Company?”
Question:
I am working on a quickie Excel spreadsheet I developed for a business plan for my internet startup company and am clueless how to even start getting a handle on my guessing my revenues for the first year, let alone the second and third years of my new company. I obviously need to hire you for a lot of what I’m doing since I am also clueless about a lot of things and how to implement them – and it looks like you really have already done it all! But I want to at least have a guess on revenues before I take the next step and start spending money. Help!
Dennis
Answer:
I haven’t done it “all”…but in three decades, I have done a LOT when it comes to start up companies! Working with 2,000 start up companies can do that for you!
In answer to your question, projecting future sales for ANY company can be challenging – but it can be especially difficult for a start up company with no history for guidance.
Without spending time, effort and money with validated market research, it will be hard knowing the real size of both your addressed market and your target market. For most small, start-up companies, their target market is substantially larger than the amount that will be actually captured in the first few years. That having been said, you are still faced with the challenge most start up companies have: predicting a realistic sales forecast.
Your sales forecast numbers are probably one of the most important assumptions you make in developing a business model for your new company. Your sales numbers will have an interrelationship on many of the other numbers in your plan: start up costs, personnel needs, advertising and marketing, support costs, how much space you lease, etc.
An excellent way to forecast sales is to (more…)